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A data science analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic, caused by the novel coronavirus.

Current: June 16 world and US by state

While many developed countries have passed the peak of new cases, global new cases are in their third wave of growth. This is fueled by high plateaus in large wave II countries like the US, and strong case growth in wave III countries like Russia.

Please note that passing the crest of new cases does not indicate peak strain on healthcare systems just yet; or that social distancing can be relaxed. Without other measures, renewed physical closeness would make curves raise exponentially again.

Please note that bottom-up state-by-state predictions of the US total, based on individual states, can and do differ from top-down predictions based on a countrywide total. The bottom up predictions should be more precise.


The novel coronavirus is bringing societies worldwide to a halt and causing widespread health impacts and fatal outcomes. Still, there appears to be a paucity of information how the crisis is likely to unfold in the near future. Most news outlets only show aggreate numbers, color-coded world maps, or descriptive statistics of the current situation.

This repository holds a daily series, in which I am taking a closer look at numbers and trends, and making some tentative projections. All data are taken from the Johns Hopkins Covid-19 dataset on GitHub. Each day, Johns Hopkins update the dataset with figures for the previous day; I salute their diligent work.

All projections are based on curve fitting on a per-country level. Thus, they extrapolate current trends. By nature, they can neither reflect the impact of recently enacted measures, which are expected to reduce infection rates, nor can they reflect new adverse developments. So please take everything with a grain of salt.

Stay safe, look after your loved ones, and stay healthy.

Markus Noga

For questions and comments, please reach out to me on LinkedIn or Twitter

Demographic projection of outcomes

Previous daily updates

Data sources

Technical prerequisites